If you are anything like me you spend probably too much time online. If you do you cannot have failed to have noticed the popularity of the Myers-Briggs Personality Tests. The craze in people labeling themselves and then spending hours on forums dissecting their inner workings has not been lost on me, and I have been guilty of the same thing.
The Myers-Briggs test is based (from what I can understand) on the Jungian archetypes developed over the course Jungs work as a psychiatrist. I'm sure that people can give a more accurate description of where it comes from and what in detail it entails, but for me this is not the important point. Anyone can find the information online.
For me the interest lies in the popularity and obsession with particular archetypes, in particular the INTJ.
The INTJ stand for "introvert", "intuituve", "thinking" and "judgement". As opposed to the "extrovert", "sensory", "feeling" and "perceiving". This archetype, known as either the 'mastermind' or the 'strategist', is very popular among the forums, blogs and youtube videos.
An INTJ is a deep thinker, concerned with efficiency, plans, systems and abstract rules. Although they live in their heads, their plans are tested against the real world. They are generally anti-social, withdrawn and perceived as arrogant. Much deeper analysis of INTJ's can be found here:
http://www.cognitivestyles.com/y/book2/Book_080.htm
http://ebonstorm.wordpress.com/about-the-author/intj/
To me it's not a surprise that this type is very popular. With the general interest in the lone intelligent genius still in favour many people consider themselves to have many of the same traits. Characters such as BBC's Sherlock, American shows; Bones, Dexter and House with the same rational unemotional figures and an academic rise in the topic of psychopathy highlight this interest. The new book "Wisdom of Psychopaths" is a recent example of this phenomenon. Everyone fancies themselves as a unique person, able to intelligently understand situations and abstract systems such as mathematics. Humans have cognitive blind spots when it comes to our image of ourselves, we will always view ourselves in a much better light than we deserve.
But it causes skewed views of reality. Scientists and mathematicians rarely stumble upon the answer in one lone eureka moment. True breakthroughs take decades of study and years of hard work with many other people, working off the input of others far more intelligent than ourselves. There is no House out there, who can break all the rules and still come up with a brilliant diagnosis in a moment of deductive clarity. Likewise the Sherlock ability to read people is not possible to the extent that he displays.
The INTJ archetype reflects the desire among many aspiring hackers, scientists and business leaders to be a solitary brooding deep personality with the knack for skilfully understanding complex systems and devising plans to get what they want. This sentiment should be replaced with the personality who is highly intelligent but able and willing to work with others to achieve their goals.
Sunday 25 November 2012
Friday 23 November 2012
Change the incentives, Change the Game!
A someone who has an interest in game theory and international politics, I thought it would be too great an opportunity to pass up to combine the two over the current Gaza crisis. Since I have just finished reading "Games Primates Play" by Dario Maestripieri (review to follow) I am in the mood to dissect issues in an economical and exact manner.
My overall reflections from the crisis were about incentives. People and nations act in their own interest, and what is in their interest is an incentive to carry out an activity. Both Israel + Hamas have an incentive to continue the conflict, the pay-offs for them are greater than peace.
Hamas uses the blockade wisely, to draw on the anger as the base for its legitimacy among the population, to excuse acts of violence against Israel, to play the victim permanently. The blockade does nothing to prevent the missiles, in fact it supports the right of the group to use them.
Israel uses the violence of its smallest neighbor to justify the security, repression and land grab in the West Bank. Gaza provides an electoral role every few years, to bring out the passions and vote for the toughest pragmatic candidate, the conflict provides Israel with an industry built on security and technology, it also shapes Israeli society and politics.
So, that being said the conflict looks intractable. But I don't think it is. The correct pay-offs and incentives are needed to shift the balance. What does each side want?
Israel can't keep bombing Gaza into submission every four years, Hamas is getting stronger and more equipped. Eventually there will have to be a shift in the power imbalance in the Strip, and won't be in Israels favour if thy can't control it. Israel needs a long term strategy for the region, something it seems to lack both militarily and politically.
Hamas is becoming a serious player in the game. Both the Economist and the Financial Times recognised that one of the major outcomes of the recent conflict was that Hamas has forced themselves onto the regional player table, they are closely linked to the Egyptian government and Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas can hide in the shadows no longer.
Therefore I think the following moves would have a radical impact on the situation.
1) Israel should very suddenly lift the blockade. Trade, water access, building materials. This will force Hamas' hand. Either they respond aggressively, in which case Israel should also respond aggressively. Or they face the more difficult challenge of shouldering the responsibility of governance, which means an end to the pathetically childish rockets.
This will also force the Egyptians to deal with an influx of Palestinians and militants in the Sinai, revealing their true intentions and loyalties.
2) Hamas should be provisionally dealt with as the legitimately elected democratic government of the West Bank. They should be given the opportunity to conform to international standards, sign treaties and be regarded as a serious actor. This will again force Hamas to either face up, or back down,
With this done, Hamas will be either uncomfortably dealing with the realities of taxation and diplomacy, or scuttling back to the shadows whilst the economy of Gaza chokes itself. The population of Gaza would be prosperous and wealthy given the opportunity. Pre blockade Gaza exported flowers and clothing. Having spent years inventing cottage industries based on mud bricks and recycling, there is more than enough entrepreneurial spirit to sustain a revival if given the chance. With the blockade lifted the idea of firing rockets in retaliation for Israeli policy is shown up for what it is, a farce.
For the moment, this is where my thought processes lead. I haven't worked out the
next stage yet. That's for another evening.
Until next time
CT
My overall reflections from the crisis were about incentives. People and nations act in their own interest, and what is in their interest is an incentive to carry out an activity. Both Israel + Hamas have an incentive to continue the conflict, the pay-offs for them are greater than peace.
Hamas uses the blockade wisely, to draw on the anger as the base for its legitimacy among the population, to excuse acts of violence against Israel, to play the victim permanently. The blockade does nothing to prevent the missiles, in fact it supports the right of the group to use them.
Israel uses the violence of its smallest neighbor to justify the security, repression and land grab in the West Bank. Gaza provides an electoral role every few years, to bring out the passions and vote for the toughest pragmatic candidate, the conflict provides Israel with an industry built on security and technology, it also shapes Israeli society and politics.
So, that being said the conflict looks intractable. But I don't think it is. The correct pay-offs and incentives are needed to shift the balance. What does each side want?
Israel can't keep bombing Gaza into submission every four years, Hamas is getting stronger and more equipped. Eventually there will have to be a shift in the power imbalance in the Strip, and won't be in Israels favour if thy can't control it. Israel needs a long term strategy for the region, something it seems to lack both militarily and politically.
Hamas is becoming a serious player in the game. Both the Economist and the Financial Times recognised that one of the major outcomes of the recent conflict was that Hamas has forced themselves onto the regional player table, they are closely linked to the Egyptian government and Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas can hide in the shadows no longer.
Therefore I think the following moves would have a radical impact on the situation.
1) Israel should very suddenly lift the blockade. Trade, water access, building materials. This will force Hamas' hand. Either they respond aggressively, in which case Israel should also respond aggressively. Or they face the more difficult challenge of shouldering the responsibility of governance, which means an end to the pathetically childish rockets.
This will also force the Egyptians to deal with an influx of Palestinians and militants in the Sinai, revealing their true intentions and loyalties.
2) Hamas should be provisionally dealt with as the legitimately elected democratic government of the West Bank. They should be given the opportunity to conform to international standards, sign treaties and be regarded as a serious actor. This will again force Hamas to either face up, or back down,
With this done, Hamas will be either uncomfortably dealing with the realities of taxation and diplomacy, or scuttling back to the shadows whilst the economy of Gaza chokes itself. The population of Gaza would be prosperous and wealthy given the opportunity. Pre blockade Gaza exported flowers and clothing. Having spent years inventing cottage industries based on mud bricks and recycling, there is more than enough entrepreneurial spirit to sustain a revival if given the chance. With the blockade lifted the idea of firing rockets in retaliation for Israeli policy is shown up for what it is, a farce.
For the moment, this is where my thought processes lead. I haven't worked out the
next stage yet. That's for another evening.
Until next time
CT
Wednesday 21 November 2012
Initial thoughts around Gaza/Israel
As my first blog post of significance I thought I would start off with a bang, the current conflict in Gaza. Having had the fortune to visit and work in the West Bank for three months in 2008 I feel able to share my thoughts about the ongoing situation in the Middle East.
As we have all seen, last week Hamas sparked a new round of military conflict when it launched a salvo of long-range missiles into Israel proper (the term proper used to define Israel at it's 1967 boundaries these days, although it used to refer to the 1948 borders). These attacks killed 3 Israeli civilians and brought about a fresh round of tit-for-tat bombings vs rocket attacks that we and the citizens of the region have become accustomed to. However, the scale and ability of Hamas to launch rockets into the outskirts of Jerusalem raises the stakes from previous conflicts. Back in 2008 when Israel launched Operation Cast Lead into Gaza, the military wing of Hamas was firing home-made rockets that often fell short of even Ashdod in southern Israel. Now it seems Hamas has upgraded it's capabilities and smuggled some serious weaponry into the strip, which most political and military commentators are declaring are of Iranian origin.
Putting aside the deaths for a moment. Politically this round of conflict has interesting timing. The US President has been freed from the pressure of re-election, the Israeli elections are due in January and the vote for Palestinian Observer Status at the UN is looming. Who stands to gain from this new fighting? First and foremost, the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has an agenda in strengthening his base with the new coalition between Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, which will see elections in 2013. A strong retaliation against Hamas with a line of national security and civilian defense will play out well in the elections. The vote for the Palestinians in the UN will be severely undermined if the world sees Hamas as the legitimate face of Palestinian leadership, and without widespread condemnation from the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank this will certainly not help their cause in the UN. However, although this will be to Israels advantage it is probably not a reason to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, it will simply be a political bonus.
However, considering that Hamas instigated this round, something that the UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has been keen to stress, it is certainly worth discussing what the benefits are for them in continuing aggressive tactics against a country with clearly superior firepower. What is not immediately obvious is that the blockade has actually strengthened Hamas. Their legitimacy within Gaza is drawn from their resistance to the blockade and their refusal to publicly accept Israel's right to exist. The underground weapons economy and tunnels system from Gaza to the Sinai smacks of well-organised and funded discussions and trade links between certain individuals in Gaza and the outside world. With Egypt unable or unwilling to control the Sinai and it's borders with Gaza it seems for the immediate future that Hamas is well connected enough to circumnavigate the worst of the blockade whilst using it to their political advantage. Their long term strategy is difficult to understand and it is unclear if they even possess one, but in the short term, Hamas uses the blockade to it's strengths. The control of the Gaza strip by Hamas has devastating consequences for the civilian population. I have been fortunate enough to meet Gazans claiming asylum in the UK, and they can testify to this fact. Hamas keeps an iron grip over the population, ruthlessly enforcing their version of shariah. They also recruit everyone they can, for many different reasons. Young men I spoke to worked as hackers, office workers, laborers and so on. In this round of conflict, Hamas will emerge the victor, no matter what the circumstances. If they are bloodied and defeated militarily they will win the ideological argument, if they can demonstrate strong military aggression and new weaponry then they will also claim a victory over the 'Zionists'. Israel is slowly strengthening their cause and their resolve. The ties that Hamas have made outside Gaza are clearly improving, and new weaponry will find its way across for the next round.
It has been interesting to note the Egyptian involvement this time round. President Morsi's new government has been quick to support the Palestinians, whilst not adopting to inflammatory a tone, and definitely not tearing up the peace treaty with Israel. The new Egyptian government is flexing it's muscles for the first time in serious regional diplomacy, and despite their more pro-Hamas stance, no country wants to criticize them for fear of fanning the flames of extremism. Therefore the tone has unsurprisingly been one of 'well done' for any diplomatic intervention, and a policy of quiet ignorance for comments that would preferably been left unsaid. The visit to Gaza by the Egyptians has demonstrated that although they are not willing to confront Israel, Egypt has far more sympathy for the Gazans that it can hold back.
My thoughts will continue to chew over this latest week of fighting, and no doubt I will write about it again at a later date. This conflict is one that draws together many personal interests of mine, including religion, international security and intelligence and the failed art of diplomatic intervention vs realpolitik.
Until next time
CT
As we have all seen, last week Hamas sparked a new round of military conflict when it launched a salvo of long-range missiles into Israel proper (the term proper used to define Israel at it's 1967 boundaries these days, although it used to refer to the 1948 borders). These attacks killed 3 Israeli civilians and brought about a fresh round of tit-for-tat bombings vs rocket attacks that we and the citizens of the region have become accustomed to. However, the scale and ability of Hamas to launch rockets into the outskirts of Jerusalem raises the stakes from previous conflicts. Back in 2008 when Israel launched Operation Cast Lead into Gaza, the military wing of Hamas was firing home-made rockets that often fell short of even Ashdod in southern Israel. Now it seems Hamas has upgraded it's capabilities and smuggled some serious weaponry into the strip, which most political and military commentators are declaring are of Iranian origin.
Putting aside the deaths for a moment. Politically this round of conflict has interesting timing. The US President has been freed from the pressure of re-election, the Israeli elections are due in January and the vote for Palestinian Observer Status at the UN is looming. Who stands to gain from this new fighting? First and foremost, the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has an agenda in strengthening his base with the new coalition between Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, which will see elections in 2013. A strong retaliation against Hamas with a line of national security and civilian defense will play out well in the elections. The vote for the Palestinians in the UN will be severely undermined if the world sees Hamas as the legitimate face of Palestinian leadership, and without widespread condemnation from the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank this will certainly not help their cause in the UN. However, although this will be to Israels advantage it is probably not a reason to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, it will simply be a political bonus.
However, considering that Hamas instigated this round, something that the UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has been keen to stress, it is certainly worth discussing what the benefits are for them in continuing aggressive tactics against a country with clearly superior firepower. What is not immediately obvious is that the blockade has actually strengthened Hamas. Their legitimacy within Gaza is drawn from their resistance to the blockade and their refusal to publicly accept Israel's right to exist. The underground weapons economy and tunnels system from Gaza to the Sinai smacks of well-organised and funded discussions and trade links between certain individuals in Gaza and the outside world. With Egypt unable or unwilling to control the Sinai and it's borders with Gaza it seems for the immediate future that Hamas is well connected enough to circumnavigate the worst of the blockade whilst using it to their political advantage. Their long term strategy is difficult to understand and it is unclear if they even possess one, but in the short term, Hamas uses the blockade to it's strengths. The control of the Gaza strip by Hamas has devastating consequences for the civilian population. I have been fortunate enough to meet Gazans claiming asylum in the UK, and they can testify to this fact. Hamas keeps an iron grip over the population, ruthlessly enforcing their version of shariah. They also recruit everyone they can, for many different reasons. Young men I spoke to worked as hackers, office workers, laborers and so on. In this round of conflict, Hamas will emerge the victor, no matter what the circumstances. If they are bloodied and defeated militarily they will win the ideological argument, if they can demonstrate strong military aggression and new weaponry then they will also claim a victory over the 'Zionists'. Israel is slowly strengthening their cause and their resolve. The ties that Hamas have made outside Gaza are clearly improving, and new weaponry will find its way across for the next round.
It has been interesting to note the Egyptian involvement this time round. President Morsi's new government has been quick to support the Palestinians, whilst not adopting to inflammatory a tone, and definitely not tearing up the peace treaty with Israel. The new Egyptian government is flexing it's muscles for the first time in serious regional diplomacy, and despite their more pro-Hamas stance, no country wants to criticize them for fear of fanning the flames of extremism. Therefore the tone has unsurprisingly been one of 'well done' for any diplomatic intervention, and a policy of quiet ignorance for comments that would preferably been left unsaid. The visit to Gaza by the Egyptians has demonstrated that although they are not willing to confront Israel, Egypt has far more sympathy for the Gazans that it can hold back.
My thoughts will continue to chew over this latest week of fighting, and no doubt I will write about it again at a later date. This conflict is one that draws together many personal interests of mine, including religion, international security and intelligence and the failed art of diplomatic intervention vs realpolitik.
Until next time
CT
Hello World!
Greetings to fellow bloggers and web enthusiasts. This blog is clearthinking, a place for me to write analysis and comments on the world around me from an unbiased objective strategic perspective. I wish to create a forum for people to discuss political, economic and scientific issues without resorting to party lines, religions, dogmas, ideologies or morals.
As some background to myself. I am a student of Biosciences who dropped out a previous degree in Political science. I also have two years of small business experience. I enjoy analysis and complex systems and hopefully will go on to study complex systems at post-graduate level, especially in the areas of theoretical immunology and global finance. I also have a keen interest in human behaviour, from the perspective of behavioural economics and evolutionary psychology. A final long term interest of mine is hacking and computer security, although this is more of a hobby than an active pursuit.
I would like this blog to be a diverse place for a wide range of topics, such as conflict, peace, business strategy, scientific advances and controversies, impact of technology, changes in global power, security or economic health and human development.
I look forward to writing, reading and discussing.
CT
As some background to myself. I am a student of Biosciences who dropped out a previous degree in Political science. I also have two years of small business experience. I enjoy analysis and complex systems and hopefully will go on to study complex systems at post-graduate level, especially in the areas of theoretical immunology and global finance. I also have a keen interest in human behaviour, from the perspective of behavioural economics and evolutionary psychology. A final long term interest of mine is hacking and computer security, although this is more of a hobby than an active pursuit.
I would like this blog to be a diverse place for a wide range of topics, such as conflict, peace, business strategy, scientific advances and controversies, impact of technology, changes in global power, security or economic health and human development.
I look forward to writing, reading and discussing.
CT
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