A someone who has an interest in game theory and international politics, I thought it would be too great an opportunity to pass up to combine the two over the current Gaza crisis. Since I have just finished reading "Games Primates Play" by Dario Maestripieri (review to follow) I am in the mood to dissect issues in an economical and exact manner.
My overall reflections from the crisis were about incentives. People and nations act in their own interest, and what is in their interest is an incentive to carry out an activity. Both Israel + Hamas have an incentive to continue the conflict, the pay-offs for them are greater than peace.
Hamas uses the blockade wisely, to draw on the anger as the base for its legitimacy among the population, to excuse acts of violence against Israel, to play the victim permanently. The blockade does nothing to prevent the missiles, in fact it supports the right of the group to use them.
Israel uses the violence of its smallest neighbor to justify the security, repression and land grab in the West Bank. Gaza provides an electoral role every few years, to bring out the passions and vote for the toughest pragmatic candidate, the conflict provides Israel with an industry built on security and technology, it also shapes Israeli society and politics.
So, that being said the conflict looks intractable. But I don't think it is. The correct pay-offs and incentives are needed to shift the balance. What does each side want?
Israel can't keep bombing Gaza into submission every four years, Hamas is getting stronger and more equipped. Eventually there will have to be a shift in the power imbalance in the Strip, and won't be in Israels favour if thy can't control it. Israel needs a long term strategy for the region, something it seems to lack both militarily and politically.
Hamas is becoming a serious player in the game. Both the Economist and the Financial Times recognised that one of the major outcomes of the recent conflict was that Hamas has forced themselves onto the regional player table, they are closely linked to the Egyptian government and Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas can hide in the shadows no longer.
Therefore I think the following moves would have a radical impact on the situation.
1) Israel should very suddenly lift the blockade. Trade, water access, building materials. This will force Hamas' hand. Either they respond aggressively, in which case Israel should also respond aggressively. Or they face the more difficult challenge of shouldering the responsibility of governance, which means an end to the pathetically childish rockets.
This will also force the Egyptians to deal with an influx of Palestinians and militants in the Sinai, revealing their true intentions and loyalties.
2) Hamas should be provisionally dealt with as the legitimately elected democratic government of the West Bank. They should be given the opportunity to conform to international standards, sign treaties and be regarded as a serious actor. This will again force Hamas to either face up, or back down,
With this done, Hamas will be either uncomfortably dealing with the realities of taxation and diplomacy, or scuttling back to the shadows whilst the economy of Gaza chokes itself. The population of Gaza would be prosperous and wealthy given the opportunity. Pre blockade Gaza exported flowers and clothing. Having spent years inventing cottage industries based on mud bricks and recycling, there is more than enough entrepreneurial spirit to sustain a revival if given the chance. With the blockade lifted the idea of firing rockets in retaliation for Israeli policy is shown up for what it is, a farce.
For the moment, this is where my thought processes lead. I haven't worked out the
next stage yet. That's for another evening.
Until next time
CT
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