As my first blog post of significance I thought I would start off with a bang, the current conflict in Gaza. Having had the fortune to visit and work in the West Bank for three months in 2008 I feel able to share my thoughts about the ongoing situation in the Middle East.
As we have all seen, last week Hamas sparked a new round of military conflict when it launched a salvo of long-range missiles into Israel proper (the term proper used to define Israel at it's 1967 boundaries these days, although it used to refer to the 1948 borders). These attacks killed 3 Israeli civilians and brought about a fresh round of tit-for-tat bombings vs rocket attacks that we and the citizens of the region have become accustomed to. However, the scale and ability of Hamas to launch rockets into the outskirts of Jerusalem raises the stakes from previous conflicts. Back in 2008 when Israel launched Operation Cast Lead into Gaza, the military wing of Hamas was firing home-made rockets that often fell short of even Ashdod in southern Israel. Now it seems Hamas has upgraded it's capabilities and smuggled some serious weaponry into the strip, which most political and military commentators are declaring are of Iranian origin.
Putting aside the deaths for a moment. Politically this round of conflict has interesting timing. The US President has been freed from the pressure of re-election, the Israeli elections are due in January and the vote for Palestinian Observer Status at the UN is looming. Who stands to gain from this new fighting? First and foremost, the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has an agenda in strengthening his base with the new coalition between Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, which will see elections in 2013. A strong retaliation against Hamas with a line of national security and civilian defense will play out well in the elections. The vote for the Palestinians in the UN will be severely undermined if the world sees Hamas as the legitimate face of Palestinian leadership, and without widespread condemnation from the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank this will certainly not help their cause in the UN. However, although this will be to Israels advantage it is probably not a reason to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, it will simply be a political bonus.
However, considering that Hamas instigated this round, something that the UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has been keen to stress, it is certainly worth discussing what the benefits are for them in continuing aggressive tactics against a country with clearly superior firepower. What is not immediately obvious is that the blockade has actually strengthened Hamas. Their legitimacy within Gaza is drawn from their resistance to the blockade and their refusal to publicly accept Israel's right to exist. The underground weapons economy and tunnels system from Gaza to the Sinai smacks of well-organised and funded discussions and trade links between certain individuals in Gaza and the outside world. With Egypt unable or unwilling to control the Sinai and it's borders with Gaza it seems for the immediate future that Hamas is well connected enough to circumnavigate the worst of the blockade whilst using it to their political advantage. Their long term strategy is difficult to understand and it is unclear if they even possess one, but in the short term, Hamas uses the blockade to it's strengths. The control of the Gaza strip by Hamas has devastating consequences for the civilian population. I have been fortunate enough to meet Gazans claiming asylum in the UK, and they can testify to this fact. Hamas keeps an iron grip over the population, ruthlessly enforcing their version of shariah. They also recruit everyone they can, for many different reasons. Young men I spoke to worked as hackers, office workers, laborers and so on. In this round of conflict, Hamas will emerge the victor, no matter what the circumstances. If they are bloodied and defeated militarily they will win the ideological argument, if they can demonstrate strong military aggression and new weaponry then they will also claim a victory over the 'Zionists'. Israel is slowly strengthening their cause and their resolve. The ties that Hamas have made outside Gaza are clearly improving, and new weaponry will find its way across for the next round.
It has been interesting to note the Egyptian involvement this time round. President Morsi's new government has been quick to support the Palestinians, whilst not adopting to inflammatory a tone, and definitely not tearing up the peace treaty with Israel. The new Egyptian government is flexing it's muscles for the first time in serious regional diplomacy, and despite their more pro-Hamas stance, no country wants to criticize them for fear of fanning the flames of extremism. Therefore the tone has unsurprisingly been one of 'well done' for any diplomatic intervention, and a policy of quiet ignorance for comments that would preferably been left unsaid. The visit to Gaza by the Egyptians has demonstrated that although they are not willing to confront Israel, Egypt has far more sympathy for the Gazans that it can hold back.
My thoughts will continue to chew over this latest week of fighting, and no doubt I will write about it again at a later date. This conflict is one that draws together many personal interests of mine, including religion, international security and intelligence and the failed art of diplomatic intervention vs realpolitik.
Until next time
CT
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